Kerala Assembly 2026
0.0%
NDA vote share—but how did we get here?
Let's build this number together, one step at a time.
Scroll to explore
Can we just use the last Assembly result?
Let's start with the simplest approach.
2021
0.0%
Last Assembly
→
2026?
0.0%
Same again?
Hmm, but wait...
- That's 4 years ago—politics moves fast
- No signal from national elections
- No signal from local elections
What if we look at other elections?
Each election type tells a different part of the story.
2024
0.0%
Lok Sabha
Most recent national mood
2025
0.0%
Local Body
Ground-level organization
2021
0.0%
Assembly
Last state-level benchmark
Interesting—three different numbers. But...
- LS elections tend to overstate Assembly performance
- Local elections measure organization, not state voting patterns
- We can't just average them—they need translation
So how do we combine these signals?
This is where your assumptions come in. Try adjusting them.
Typical
Average
Medium
Neutral
Medium
Okay, but how confident should we be?
A single number looks precise—but elections aren't. Let's think in probabilities.
Our best estimate
0.0%
Center of the range of possibilities
But it could easily be
±0.0pp
This much higher or lower
The real question isn't "what's the number?"—it's "how likely are we to cross meaningful thresholds?"
≥15%
0%
chance
≥16%
0%
chance
≥17%
0%
chance
≥19%
0%
chance
So what did we learn?
"This isn't a prediction. It's a map of plausible futures."
- 0% chance of ≥16% — less than even odds, but definitely possible
- 100% chance of falling short — that's real too
- Try changing the assumptions above — see how sensitive the forecast is to your beliefs
Go back and adjust the knobs. The goal isn't to find "the right answer" — it's to understand what drives the range of possibilities.