How NDA is positioned for 2026
What the numbers reveal, and what they cannot.
Past Assembly elections alone
Three elections. One trend line. A starting point.
A different source: elections
Local elections offer more recent data and reflect ground-level support patterns.
Three sources, one baseline
Assembly, Local, and Lok Sabha results, weighted and combined.
The turnout factor
Turnout benefits some alliances more than others.
Gradual drift over five years
Each alliance gains or loses support at a measurable rate.
The irreducible unknowns
Candidates, campaigns, and late-breaking events matter. Their impact can be , not predicted.
The range of plausible outcomes
This is the boundary of results that the data supports.
It's more likely than not that NDA consolidates itself as a mid-teens player.
A breakout result is possible but not the most likely outcome.
This would require unusually favorable conditions.
The Race Is Closer Than You Have Heard
The prevailing narrative—a decisive shift, a foregone conclusion—is not supported by the data. This race is close.
Headlines claimed certainty. The data shows competition. When the results arrive, the question will be whether they fell within this range—or whether the confident predictions were right after all.