7-Part Series
Making Sense of Kerala Vote Shares
A 7-part investigation into what Kerala election data actually supports, and where certainty ends.
The Obvious Question After the Local Elections
The obvious approach, projecting local results forward, produces numbers that are not absurd but do not quite settle either. That unease is where the inquiry begins.
Three Election Types, Three Different Stories
Election-type differences (Lok Sabha, Assembly, Local) are real but often assumed to be manageable. What is easy to miss is how deeply they reshape vote share, and how differently they do so for each alliance.
Making Different Elections Comparable
The solution is a translation step.
Choosing What to Trust: Why Assembly History Has to Lead
Once every election speaks the same language, should all three results be blended equally? Leaning on recent momentum makes the estimate jumpy. Anchoring in Assembly history provides something stable.
Two Quiet Forces Almost Ignored
Turnout does not seem like it would matter much in Kerala Assembly elections. Long-term trends are hard to quantify. But the effects of both are modest, systematic, alliance-specific, and impossible to ignore.
The Mistake Almost Made About Uncertainty
The remaining uncertainty seems like it could be treated as another adjustment. It cannot. The right way to handle these known unknowns is to represent spread, not direction.
The Race Is Closer Than You Have Heard
The data directly contradicts the narrative of a decisive shift. This race is close—much closer than the headlines claim.