The Obvious Question After the Local Elections
TL;DR
The obvious approach, projecting local results forward, produces numbers that are not absurd but do not quite settle either. That unease is where the inquiry begins.
When the local election results came in, the predictions for 2026 were immediate and confident. A decisive shift. A barometer for the Assembly elections.
The obvious approach
Take the local results and carry them forward. Local results should translate into comparable Assembly support.
| Alliance | 2025 Local | "Implied" Assembly | 2021 Assembly | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UDF | 40.7% | ~40.7% | 39.5% | +1.2 |
| LDF | 35.7% | ~35.7% | 45.4% | -9.7 |
| NDA | 16.0% | ~16.0% | 12.4% | +3.6 |
Local vote share to implied Assembly vote share
When the numbers do not add up
The numbers are not absurd. But the more you look, the less comfortable they become. LDF dropping nearly 10 points from their last Assembly result? UDF barely moving despite the 'sweep' narrative? Something does not add up.
The gap between narrative and data
Either the conventional wisdom about elections is wrong, or these elections are not measuring what they appear to measure.